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British house prices were flat in July, according to the first full month of data recorded entirely under the Lloyds House Price Index name, the lender said on Friday. The typical UK property was valued at £299,253, unchanged on the month and 0.1% higher than a year earlier, the weakest annual rate of growth since November 2023.

The standstill takes the momentum out of a market that had shown a little life earlier in the summer. June’s modest gain of 0.2% now reads as a pause rather than the start of a sustained climb, and an annual figure of just 0.1% points to a market that is holding its value rather than building on it. Amanda Bryden, Lloyds’ head of mortgages, said average prices had “remained relatively stable for almost two years, moving within a narrow range”, a description that fits July more comfortably than any talk of recovery. Prices have spent the better part of two years oscillating around the £290,000 to £300,000 mark, and July did nothing to break that pattern.

July is also the first full data-month originated and recorded entirely within the Lloyds-badged framework, after the Halifax House Price Index was renamed the Lloyds House Price Index earlier in the summer. The change is one of branding rather than method. The series has long been computed on combined Halifax and Lloyds mortgage lending, and the methodology behind July’s number is the same as the one that produced June’s. The name on the release is new; the way the figure is built is not, and that continuity matters for anyone reading the series over time.

The flat reading sits squarely with where the Bank of England has left borrowing costs. A run of earlier cuts brought Bank Rate down and eased mortgage pricing, underpinning the summer’s brief pickup, but the Monetary Policy Committee held at 3.75% on 30 July in a 6-3 vote, with three members arguing for a rise to 4.00% rather than a cut. Mortgage pricing is set as much by expectations as by the current level of Bank Rate: lenders fund fixed deals against swap rates, which move on where the market thinks the Bank is heading. When policymakers hold and signal that some would rather tighten than loosen, the market trims its bets on further cuts and the cheapest fixed rates stop falling. Lloyds linked July’s softness to mortgage rates edging up again amid global economic uncertainty, and that is the channel through which a held rate becomes a flat month for prices.

For buyers and those remortgaging, a typical value close to £299,000 and a held Bank Rate mean the affordability arithmetic has barely moved. Lenders stress-test borrowers against rates above the ones on offer, and a pause keeps those buffers roughly where they were. With the next Bank decision not due until 17 September, anyone coming off a fixed deal this autumn faces the trade-off that has defined the year: lock in certainty at today’s prices, or wait for cuts the committee is in no hurry to deliver. The presence of three votes for a hike is a reminder that the next move is not guaranteed to be downwards.

Activity, rather than price, is where the strain shows. With affordability tests unchanged and deposit requirements as demanding as ever, first-time buyers are the group for whom a flat market offers least relief: prices are not falling to meet them, and the cheaper fixed rates that would ease monthly payments are no longer on the way down. For homeowners sitting on equity the calmer picture is easier to live with, but the incentive to trade up has faded along with the prospect of quick capital gains.

The national flatline masks a familiar north-south split. Northern Ireland again recorded the strongest annual growth, up 7.4% to a typical £231,131, with Scotland up 3.6% and Wales up 1.6%. The drag came from the south, where prices in the south east fell 2% over the year and those in Greater London slipped 1.3%. The most expensive markets remain the most sensitive to stretched affordability, and it is there that a held rate and higher fixed pricing bite hardest.

None of this points to a market in distress. A flat month on a value that has barely shifted in two years is the picture of a housing market absorbing higher borrowing costs rather than buckling under them. But it is also a market waiting on the Bank. With rates on hold and the next rate-setting meeting six weeks away, July’s print suggests house prices are content, for now, to mark time.

Finance & Markets Correspondent
Covers: Finance, capital markets, technology investing

David Whitmore covers the intersection of capital and code — the funding rounds, market structures and policy moves that shape how money flows through the technology economy.